The final YouGov poll ahead of Saturday's federal election offers some startling predictions, given most other polls suggest a hung parliament or a narrow Labor majority.
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* Labor is leading the coalition 52.9 per cent to 47.1 per cent on a two-party preferred basis
* This would give Labor 84 seats in the lower house, well above the 76 needed for a majority
* The coalition could end up with 47 seats, after a net loss of 11, which would be its worst result since 1946
* Under those conditions, Liberal frontbenchers David Coleman (Banks, NSW), Michael Sukkar (Deakin, Vic) and Dan Tehan (Wannon, Vic) could lose their seats, with the first two going to Labor and the third to an independent
* Independents could also pick up the coalition seats of Cowper, Calare and Bradfield - all in NSW
* YouGov also predicts Labor to pick up Braddon (Tas), Bonner (Qld), Menzies (Vic), Moore (WA) and Sturt (SA) from the coalition
* The Liberals are set to reclaim Aston (Vic) after losing it to Labor in a 2023 by-election
* YouGov also has seat ranges, including 76 to 85 seats for Labor, 45 to 53 for the coalition, two to five for the Greens and 13 to 16 for independents
* But Labor's primary vote is likely to fall 1.2 percentage points to 31.4 per cent from the 2022 election, with the coalition down 0.3 points to 31.1 per cent
* The Greens' primary vote appears steady at just over 12 per cent
* One Nation could almost double its vote to more than nine per cent
* YouGov conducted 35,185 voter interviews between April 1 and 29, which it used to model 10,822 respondents to predict the election outcome
Australian Associated Press
