'War on woke' gives poll bump for New Zealand First

At the half-way point of Chris Luxon's coalition government, both New Zealand's major polling firms released new surveys this week, delivering differing outcomes for the first-term administration.

Mr Luxon's three-party right-wing coalition would be returned to power on the TVNZ-Verian numbers, with a tight win over the left bloc. 

According to the the Radio NZ-Reid Research result, Chris Hipkins' Labour party could form his own coalition, making Mr Luxon' the first prime minister to lead a one-term government in 50 years.

The common denominator in both polls was a drop for Mr Luxon's National Party by two points, and a jump for two minor parties: the left-wing Greens and NZ First.

The Greens are up two points to 12 per cent in both polls, which is a recovery to their result at the 2023 election.

NZ First, which Mr Peters has led since its formation in 1993, has landed at eight and nine per cent: its best result since 2017, just before Jacinda Ardern was made Labour leader and won power.

At that poll, Mr Peters backed Dame Jacinda's Labour Party and put them in office, but after falling from parliament in 2020, they've campaigned on fringe concerns, aligning with US President Donald Trump.

In New Zealand, parties need to hit five per cent of the nationwide party vote to guarantee parliamentary representation - meaning for minor parties, their primary challenge is to cross that crucial threshold.

Mr Peters appears to have found a winning formula with his party's reborn positioning, including championing fossil fuels, stripping out environmental protections and attacking transgender and indigenous rights.

The 80-year-old said his party was reaping the benefits of "getting out there and speaking about ordinary issues".

"We've made some giant strides on areas which were described by the media as going down a rabbit hole," he said.

The polling was conducted after the government's budget, which forecast a series of deficits, even as it banked billions in savings by stripping away wage increases in women-dominated industries.

It also comes as Mr Peters vacates the deputy prime minister position, as agreed in the coalition agreements, to ACT leader David Seymour.

LATEST NEW ZEALAND POLITICAL POLLS

TVNZ - VERIAN

National - 34 per cent (down two)

Labour - 29 (down three)

Greens - 12 (up two)

NZ First - 8 (up one)

ACT - 8 (down one)

Maori Party - 4 (steady)

RADIO NZ - REID RESEARCH

National - 31 (down two)

Labour - 33 (up one)

Greens - 12 (up two)

NZ First - 9 (down two)

ACT - 7 (down three)

Maori Party - 5 (steady)

Australian Associated Press